Bitcoin MVRV and NUPL On-Chain Dashboard
MVRV compares network market value with realized value. NUPL expresses the same valuation relationship as net unrealized profit or loss divided by market value. Read them together as related research context.
The shared inputs
Realized capitalization adds the USD value assigned to unspent BTC at its last movement. Dividing realized cap by the same BTC supply gives realized price. Market capitalization uses the selected source snapshot’s BTC price multiplied by that supply.
The dashboard uses the network snapshot for these macro metrics even when you select an age or other cohort for the distribution. A selected cohort’s own cost-basis summary is a different scope. Neither calculation estimates your personal purchase history.
MVRV and NUPL formulas
| Metric | Formula | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Realized price | Realized cap / BTC supply | Average last-moved cost per BTC. |
| MVRV | Market cap / realized cap | A value of 1 means the two caps are equal. |
| NUPL | (Market cap − realized cap) / market cap | Network net unrealized P&L as a fraction of market cap. |
| Relationship | NUPL = 1 − 1 / MVRV | The metrics share inputs, so they are not independent confirmations. |
These formulas require valid, positive denominators and consistent snapshot inputs. The application prefers a supplied realized cap; it derives market cap minus source unrealized P&L only when the required inputs are complete. An unavailable value stays unavailable.
A numerical illustration
Assume an illustrative market cap of $2 trillion and realized cap of $1 trillion, both for the same network supply. MVRV is 2 and NUPL is 0.5, or 50%. If market cap instead falls to $0.8 trillion with realized cap unchanged, MVRV is 0.8 and NUPL is −0.25, or −25%.
The negative result describes a network aggregate relative to last-moved cost. It does not mean every participant lost 25%, and the example does not forecast either market cap.
Reference bands used by this site
| NUPL interval | Equivalent MVRV interval | Descriptive reference |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0 | Below 1 | Net unrealized loss |
| 0 to below 0.25 | 1 to below 4/3 | Lower positive net P&L |
| 0.25 to below 0.50 | 4/3 to below 2 | Middle positive net P&L |
| 0.50 to below 0.75 | 2 to below 4 | Higher positive net P&L |
| 0.75 or above | 4 or above | Largest reference band |
The site assigns bands using unrounded values and the boundaries 0, 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75. These are descriptive conventions, not independently backtested buy/sell signals. Crossing a boundary does not confirm a market top, bottom or suitable trade.
Dates, trends and simulation
The macro view names its source day. Its historical comparison requires the exact earlier date; a missing T−30 observation is not filled with a nearby date. Differences between providers can also reflect their price series, cohort definitions and processing.
Price simulation holds the recorded distribution and realized cap fixed. It asks how these metrics would change under a hypothetical price, not how spending or realized cap will actually evolve. Read the methodology before interpreting a scenario as a future outcome.
Questions about this metric
Do MVRV and NUPL confirm one another independently?
No. With consistent inputs, NUPL equals 1 minus the inverse of MVRV. Their agreement follows from the same arithmetic.
Are the bands trading signals?
No. They organize valuation context. This site does not present an independently backtested strategy or a guaranteed turning point.
Do the macro numbers change to STH when I select STH?
No. The macro valuation view remains network-wide; selected-cohort summaries are labeled separately.